NHL Betting Free Picks: Tampa Bay @ Washington
Added on Mar 13, 2010 by Jack Thurman in
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While sportsbooks and their customers are going to be focused on basketball this weekend don’t forget that there are good NHL betting opportunities on the board as well. We’ll take a look at a game between the Washington Capitals and the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Caps have the best record in the NHL, while Tampa Bay is trying to claw its way into postseason contention.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals
March 12, 4:05 PM Pacific
Washington has been installed as a -330 home favorite here, which almost necessitates a play on Tampa Bay based on general principle alone. As the Caps’ lead in the Eastern Conference grows and the season winds down teams fighting for their playoff lives are going to be good value positions as big underdogs against Washington. Three of the Caps four home games since the return from the Winter Olympic break have been decided by one goal, including a loss to Dallas so its not like Washington is blowing out opponents at home. Even though the +285 takeback on Tampa Bay is attractive, they’re not doing much lately to justify a position even at such a high price. The Lightning have lost 7 of 8 and are playing defense that makes the Caps’ own shaky backline look stingy by comparison.
This brings us to where we usually end up when handicapping Washington games–the total. The total for this game has been posted at 7 UN -130, which is the first ’7′ this season. While there may be some hesitancy in going Over such a high number, from a statistical standpoint the half goal move from 6.5 to 7 isn’t particularly significant. Assuming you’re looking to play the ‘Over’ here there isn’t really much statistical difference over the longterm between 6′ OV -130 and 7 OV +110.
So now we’ll consider the matchup and current form of the teams involved–in other words, can they combine for the 8 or more goals we need to cash this ticket? Washington obviously can score goals. The insanely talented Alex Ovechkin gets most of the ink, but the team has got plenty of other offensive firepower including Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom. The Caps have gone Over the total in 9 of their L11 games, with 7 of their L10 games producing 7 or more goals. Washington has the #1 ranked scoring offense in the NHL (3.88 goals per game) but only a middling defense (ranked #15 in goals against per game). Tampa Bay is ranked #21 in scoring defense allowing just under 3 goals per game (2.98). They’re scoring a decent amount of goals, but giving up even more–the ‘perfect storm’ for an Over. Tampa has combined for totals of 7 or more goals in eight straight and 9 of 11, with 8+ goals in 7 of 11! In their eight game run, the average total goal output in Tampa’s games has been 8.25.
Tampa and Washington played just over a week ago, with the two teams combining for 9 goals. No reason they can’t do it again given the current form of both teams.
Bet Tampa Bay/Washington Over 7 +110
