Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Houston Texans at New York Jets

Added on Oct 08, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The Houston Texans are arguably the best team in the NFL at this point and they’ll try to remain undefeated as they travel East to face the hapless New York Jets. The 2-2 Jets are coming off a lopsided loss to the San Francisco 49ers and are plagued by injuries–along with poor play on both sides of the ball.

Houston Texans at New York Jets
October 8, 2012 5:40 PM Pacific

This looks like a rout in the making. The Texans are hitting on all cylinders on both sides of the ball while the Jets are banged up on defense and have been utterly unproductive on offense. The target of most of the blame has been quarterback Mark Sanchez and certainly he’s played a part in the Jets’ horrible season but there’s plenty of blame to go around. They’re #26 in total offense, #23 in rushing offense and most alarmingly #27 in passing offense. Sanchez is the #30 ranked quarterback in the NFL.

And the defense isn’t any better–New York is #23 in total defense and #31 in rushing defense. Their performance against the run has been so bad that teams haven’t needed to pass against them but with the season ending injury to arguably the best pass coverage specialist in the NFL, Darrelle Revis, opponents should have no problem passing against their undermanned secondary. This is exactly what the Texans and Matt Schaub did against Kansas City in the first week of the season and it could be more of the same tonight.

That being said–there are few things scarier to a veteran NFL football handicapper than a game that looks ‘too easy’. Texans aren’t sneaking up on anybody now–they’re now the favorite to win the Super Bowl and have covered 18 of their last 23 games. They’ve covered 4 of their last five against the Jets. But history does provide an interesting perspective on this game. Jets haven’t been a home dog of more than a touchdown since 2007 under Eric Mangini—they were +9 at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers after starting the year 1-9 SU and mired in a six game losing streak. They won outright that night.

Don’t really expect history to repeat itself here but in theory there are few worse things you can do as an NFL bettor than lay big prices with ‘public’ teams on the road. Jets have covered 5 of their last 6 as MNF underdogs. To win as a NFL bettor you have to be a contrarian so we’ll take the points with the ugly Jets. Texans UN in 15 of their last 23 as a favorite and with the Jets’ offensive struggles well documented we’ll also go Under.

Bet New York Jets +9′ over Houston Texans
Bet New York/Houston Under 41