Baseball Betting Picks: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Added on Aug 30, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Atlanta Braves are still in the hunt for the NL East title but they haven’t been playing well lately and as a result haven’t been able to take advantage of Washington’s late season swoon. The Braves have lost 6 of their last 10 while the Nationals have gone 5-5 in their last ten. Sum total–the Braves are still 5.5 games out of the divisional lead. They have a good chance to get back on track this weekend as underachieving Philadelphia comes to town.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
August 31, 2012 4:35 PM Pacific

It’s hard to figure out what the baseball betting ‘public’ sees in this Philadelphia Phillies team. They’ve been arguably the biggest disappointment of the 2012 season and have been among the biggest money losers for baseball bettors all year and yet they’re still overvalued. Part of the reason for that is the ‘name value’ of Phillies ace Roy Halladay. Halladay has pitched reasonably well since coming off the DL but nowhere near his usual high standards and definitely not well enough to justify the price in this game.

So where do we start with the Phillies? Actually, if you’ve been following our plays all baseball season you’ve heard plenty about Philadelphia’s dismal moneyline performance as we’ve gone against them at every opportunity. To their credit, they haven’t quit on the season and actually enter this game having won 6 of their last 10. Not that it means anything–they’re still 17.5 games out of first place and 12.5 games behind the second place Braves. They’ve lost 21.4 units overall and 17.1 units against NL East rivals. On the road they’ve admittedly been ‘less bad’ than at home but they’ve still lost -3.1 units away from Philadelphia.

Perhaps the most significant component of this handicap is the pitching matchup. The Braves have cleaned up against right handers this season going 50-30 +16.2 units. The only time we really look to play against the Braves is when they face lefthanders but against even the best righties they’re a play. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has lost -11.8 units against lefthanders. Mike Minor started the season in bad form but has been solid of late. Just can’t justify the price in this game–Atlanta has won 74 games and are a legit postseason contender while the Phillies are still a mess.

Bet Atlanta Braves (Minor) -105 over Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay)