Baseball Betting Picks: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Aug 24, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Washington Nationals will try to maintain the best record in baseball as they continue their series against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. Washington has a 6.5 game lead over the Atlanta Braves atop the division while the Phillies are in a three way battle with the Miami Marlins and New York Mets for the worst record in the NL East.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
August 25, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

Roy Halladay has pitched fairly well since coming off the disabled list but well enough to be favored against the best team in baseball starting one of the best southpaws in the game? We don’t think so. Halladay may not be back to his old top line form but he’s been solid with a 3.68 ERA in his last three starts. The problem is that Washington starter Gio Gonzalez has been even better–in particular he’s been excellent on the road. Away from home Gonzalez has a 3.26 ERA and the Nats have won 12 of his 14 starts.

The Phillies have struggled in most situations this year and facing lefthanded pitchers is no exception. Against southpaws the Phillies are 15-23 -12.8 units. Even more problematic is their shoddy offensive performance against lefthanders–the Phillies are hitting .235 and averaging only 3.3 runs per game against southpaws. Washington, on the other hand, has pummeled right handed pitchers (+18 units). And aside from the pitching matchup there’s no comparison between these two teams–the Phillies have double digit losses in just about every situation while the Nationals have double digit profits in most situational breakdowns.

This is a classic case of a situation where you’re paying for the ‘brand name’ of the starting pitcher and not his current form. Halladay has been good, not great, since returning from the DL and nowhere near dominant enough to compensate for the overall dreadfulness of his team. Gio Gonzalez may not have the ‘brand name’ that Halladay does but this year at least he’s the better pitcher. We’ll gladly take the plus money with the best team in baseball against one of the most disappointing. The Nationals can’t sleep on the Atlanta Braves yet and until they are in a situation where they’ve got the division locked up they’ll be worth playing.

Bet Washington Nationals (Gonzalez) +105 over Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay)