Baseball Betting Picks: Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants

Added on Aug 24, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

An important National League series between the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants continues on Saturday at AT&T Park. The Giants are trying to hold on to their lead in the NL West while the Braves are trying to cut into the Washington Nationals’ lead in the NL East. The final game of the series will take place on Sunday.

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
August 25, 2012 1:05 PM Pacific

At first glace this seems like a spot where the San Francisco Giants may be a bit overvalued in their home game against the Atlanta Braves. While it’s hard to pass up a team that has won more than 70 games as a decent sized underdog the situational matchup definitely justifies it and we’re going to play this game accordingly. The Braves are treading water at the moment–they entered Friday night’s second game of the series having split their last 10 games. San Francisco, meanwhile, has won 7 of 10 pending the outcome of Friday’s game. Despite the suspension of Melky Cabrera the Giants are hanging tough in the NL West.

The most significant component of this handicap concerns the pitching matchup. The Braves have struggled this season against southpaws going 22-26 -7.4 units against left handed pitching. They’ll be facing a good one in this game–Madison Bumgarner has been very good all season and even better lately. At home Bumgarner has a 1.87 ERA and the Giants have won 9 of his 11 starts. In his last three starts Bumgarner has a 1.57 ERA and a 0.609 WHIP. For a Braves team that has made journeyman lefties look good at times this year facing the exceptional talent of Bumgarner is a serious challenge.

The Braves will counter with their own left hander–Mike Minor has had his ups and downs this year and although he’s pitched well lately Atlanta has lost his last three starts. A bigger problem–the Giants have been solid against southpaws this season. San Francisco is 27-13 +15.3 units against left handers. They shouldn’t have any problem hitting Minor while the Braves could be dominated by Bumgarner. The Braves are good enough to make a run at Washington but this looks like a game that the Giants will take.

Bet San Francisco Giants (Bumgarner) -150 over Atlanta Braves (Minor)