Baseball Betting Picks: Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies
Added on Aug 21, 2012 by Jack Thurman in
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The Cincinnati Reds laid an egg in yesterday’s series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies but there was little harm done. The only two teams within striking distance–St. Louis and Pittsburgh–also lost meaning that the Reds didn’t give up any ground atop the division Cincinnati has opened up a 6.5 game lead in the NL Central over second place Pittsburgh and an 8 game advantage over third place St. Louis. The only thing the Phillies are playing for now is to avoid finishing last in the NL East–they hold a 1.5 game lead over last place Miami for this dubious distinction but since the Marlins also won they didn’t pick up any ground either. Game 2 of this four game set is back in Philadelphia tonight.
Cincinnati Reds (Bailey) at Philadelphia Phillies (Lee)
August 21, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific
Yesterday we discussed how starting pitching is overrated as a handicapping concept. Today it’s more of the same with a ‘name’ pitcher in Cliff Lee posted as a sizable favorite despite the Reds team superiority in every statistical category–let alone the standings. Another mistake made by neophyte baseball handicappers is reading too much into a single game. Too often an inexperienced handicapper will scratch a play off of his list simply because the team in question lost for him the night before. Huge mistake and one that we won’t make in this game.
The Phillies have shown some life in August and turned a small profit but even with that positive run and yesterday’s win their overall profit/loss figures are horrible: -21.2 units overall, -21 units against teams with winning records, -18.4 units at home and -8.4 units against right handed pitchers. The Reds, on the other hand, have been profitable in just about every situational breakdown including +16.4 units overall +5.8 units on the road. Of particular importance tonight is their success against left handed pitching–Cincinnati is 23-14 +6.2 units this season against southpaws. Homer Bailey’s overall ERA isn’t impressive but he’s been good on the road this season–he’s got a 2.92 ERA away from home where the Reds have won 9 of his 11 assignments.
And as was the case yesterday with Roy Halladay the reason the Phillies are favored here is due to the ‘name value’ of starter Cliff Lee. Lee’s an even more dubious favorite since he’s been ineffective all season and hasn’t really shown much recent improvement. Lee has a 4.59 ERA and a 0-5 record at home this year. Overall the Reds have lost 14 of his 21 starts and 6 of 9 at home. Unlike Halladay–who has been relatively sharp since his return from the DL–Lee’s recent performance is in line with his yearly numbers. In his last three starts he’s got a 4.37 ERA with the Phillies losing 2 of these three games.
Despite yesterday’s loss the Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have the second best overall record in baseball. As we pointed out yesterday, Cincinnati knows that it can’t sit on their 6.5 game lead over Pittsburgh due to a very favorable schedule down the stretch.
Bet Cincinnati Reds (Bailey) +145 over Philadelphia Phillies (Lee)
