MLB Betting Picks: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Added on Aug 20, 2012 by Jack Thurman in
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Important NL East showdown starts tonight as the Atlanta Braves head to Washington to take on the Nationals. The Nationals have won 7 of 10, the Braves 6 of their last 10. Atlanta hit a bit of a speed bump over the weekend as they dropped two of three to the Los Angeles Dodgers (who are playing very good baseball and fighting for the NL West title). Of some concern is the way in which they lost the last two games of the set–the Dodgers outscored the Braves 11-2 including a 5-0 shutout on Sunday.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
August 20, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific
A big mistake of neophyte sports bettors is overreacting to what happens in the short term–for example, betting against a team because of 1 or 2 bad games. This is especially true in baseball where the sheer number of games makes each individual contest somewhat insignificant. There are exceptions, of course, like teams trying to make up a standings deficit in the last week of the season but these notwithstanding it’s essential not to overreact when ‘good’ teams lose a few games (or when ‘bad’ teams win a few).
That’s a good place to begin the handicap of this game. Atlanta and Washington have been playing great baseball during the past couple of months. Both are one of only 6 teams with 70 wins on the season (and the only ones in the same division). In other words, in a matchup of good teams that play well both at home and on the road the underdog should be the play throughout this series. Washington’s Jordan Zimmerman has the better ERA numbers–he’s got a 2.38 ERA overall (2.90 at home) but Hudson has been solid as well and especially away from Turner Field where he’s got a 3.06 ERA. Perhaps the most impressive thing about Hudson is this–when he takes the rock every fourth day (or in Atlanta’s current rotation every sixth day) he just wins. Atlanta has won 16 of Hudson’s 20 starts this year including 7 of 8 on the road. For all of Zimmerman’s statistical success he’s actually lost a small amount of money for baseball bettors at home, going 6-5 -0.8 units. The ‘plus money’ on the underdog will be the play throughout this series starting tonight with the Braves and Hudson.
Bet Atlanta Braves (Hudson) +125 over Washington (Zimmerman)
