Baseball Betting Picks: San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves

Added on Aug 16, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Atlanta Braves will host the San Diego Padres tonight at Turner Field and for once they know a victory will draw them closer to the Washington Nationals. The red hot Nats are idle tonight which of late has been the only way to cool them off much to the chagrin of the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta has done everything they can over the past six weeks to run down NL East leading Washington but there’s been one problem–the Nationals have been playing even better baseball and aren’t going to give anything up easily.

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
August 16, 2012 4:10 PM Pacific

Betting value is sometimes not easy to find in Major League Baseball and very seldom obvious. That’s why you may be surprised to learn that the San Diego Padres have scrapped out a small profit against right handed pitching this year. San Diego is 36-41 +4.3 units against right handers. Having said that, it sure doesn’t justify a play on them here against the sizzling hot Atlanta Braves. While Pittsburgh has eked out a small profit against right handers Atlanta has destroyed them (48-24 +21 units). Atlanta also continues to fatten up on weaker opposition when they get the opportunity–in the second half of the season Atlanta is 20-6 +11.6 units against teams under .500.

Huge disparity in the pitching matchup as well–San Diego will start journeyman Jason Marquis who might not exactly be Gaylord Perry in terms of the number of uniforms he’s worn in his 12 year MLB career but is creeping into the discussion. The Padres are Marquis’ eighth team–he even played for Atlanta early in his career. The fact that Marquis always has a job speaks to his professionalism but he’s never been a dominant pitcher and has a 5.05 ERA overall this season. Atlanta will counter with Kris Medlen who missed most of the 2011 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Not much was expected of Medlen when he made his first start in two years on July 30–he got the start due to injuries and personnel moves at the trade deadline and the hope was that he’d ‘eat up innings’. Instead he’s been downright dominant with a 1.62 ERA as a starter, a 16 to 4 strikeout to walk ration and 3 Braves wins in his three starts. He’s been so good that Atlanta has moved to a five man rotation to accommodate him and will briefly use a six man rotation when Tommy Hanson returns from the 15 day DL.

The only time we’re hesitant about using the Atlanta Braves is against left handed pitching. Against a losing team with a garden variety right hander we’ll gladly back the Bravos. In fact, we’ll take Atlanta on the run line which reduces our financial risk–since losing the opening game of this series to San Diego and lefthander Eric Stults who had his best start in three years Atlanta has won the next two games by a combined score of 12-1. More of the same tonight.

Bet Atlanta Braves (Medlen) -1.5 +105 over San Diego Padres (Marquis)