MLB Betting Picks: New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds

Added on Aug 15, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Cincinnati Reds will try to pad their lead atop the NL Central as they host the New York Mets in Wednesday baseball action. The Reds have taken advantage of inconsistent play by rivals St. Louis and Pittsburgh and have pulled six games clear of the divisional pack. They’ve got a good draw in this series as they face the sputtering New York Mets who are trying to hold on to third place in the NL East with the surging Phillies just 1 game behind.

New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds
August 15, 2012 4:10 PM Pacific

Very quietly the Cincinnati Reds have become one of the best teams in baseball. They are one of only two Major League teams to have broken the 70 victory barrier (Washington with 72 wins is the other) and they’ll take a spiffy 70-46 mark into tonight’s contest at the Great American Ballpark. The venue is significant as the Reds are among the best home teams in baseball with a record of 37-20 +10.9 units. To their credit, the Mets have managed to turn a small profit (+3 units) but have not done well when stepping up in class this season–and particularly since the All Star Break. In the second half of the season the Mets are 6-15 -8.4 units against opponents with winning records and they’re facing one of the best teams in the sport here.

So why are the Mets favored? That’s a result of the starting pitching where they’ll send righthander R.A. Dickey to the mound. The knuckleballer has a road ERA of 2.78 and has been very sharp in his last three assignments posting a 1.17 ERA. There is a bit of a caveat in his recent form–two of the three wins came against weak hitting opponents (San Diego, Miami) with the other against inconsistent Arizona. Cincinnati will counter with Mike Leake who may be the ‘weak link’ in the Reds rotation. He has pitched better since a dismal start to the season and should he struggle the Reds will be quick to call in the bullpen–a relief corps that happens to be the best in baseball. At home, the Reds pen has a 2.19 ERA and a 17-6 record.

The Reds are 27-12 since July 1st and have manhandled opponents with losing records this season and particularly down the stretch–in the second half of the season Cincy is 21-8 against teams with losing records. Dickey may be the better starting pitcher but we’ll gladly take the better team in better form as small underdogs.

Bet Cincinnati Reds (Leake) +105 over NY Mets (Dickey)