MLB Betting Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Added on Aug 02, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been playing decent baseball of late and they’ll try to continue that run as they travel East to face the Philadelphia Phillies. The D-Backs have won 7 of their last 10 games and are now just 2 games out of first place in the NL West. They have a good opportunity to pick up some more ground as they play a weekend series against the downward spiraling Philadelphia Phillies.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
August 3, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

Same concept, different day–the Philadelphia Phillies are a trainwreck yet their baseball betting prices don’t truly reflect the mess that this team is in. Hard to understand why–the team has started to unload some of their position players looking to rebuild for next season (though they have kept their pitching staff intact) and are 14.5 games out of first place. My best guess is that it’s a classic case of bettors focusing more on the ‘brand name’ on the uniform instead of the current performance of the team. Whatever the reason, we’ll gladly continue going against the Phillies whenever we get the opportunity.

From a betting standpoint, the Diamondbacks have been essentially treading water in most situations this season. That being said, they’re 3 games under .500 and a clear choice at a ‘pick’em’ price in this matchup. The Phillies, on the other hand, are nowhere near even ‘treading water’. Philadelphia is -24 units overall this season and there are few situational spots where the team hasn’t lost a ton of money. They have been awful a home going 21-29 for a -19.8 unit loss. They’ve been especially dismal against opponents with winning records–they’ve posted a record of 22-37 against teams over .500 which translates to a loss of -22.6 units.

The Phillies will start righthander Joe Blanton who has pitched well of late–Blanton has a 2.74 ERA in his last three games in which the Phillies went 2-1. Worth noting that both wins came against weak hitting opponents (San Francisco and Los Angeles) which are the best situations for the Phillies due to their sputtering offensive output. The Diamondbacks will start Ian Kennedy who may finally be starting to come into form at the right time of the season–Arizona is 3-0 in his last three starts with Kennedy posting a 2.42 ERA and a 0.940 WHIP against a decent class of opponent–at least from an offensive standpoint (NY Mets, Cincinnati, Colorado).

Pitching matchup notwithstanding, we’re getting a ‘pick’em’ price in a matchup between a team playing for the postseason against a team who will be doing well to avoid finishing in last place in their division. We’ll be on the D-Backs throughout this series.

Bet Arizona Diamondbacks (Kennedy) -105 over Philadelphia Phillies (Blanton)