MLB Baseball Betting Picks: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Added on Jul 28, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Atlanta Braves will try to keep pace with the Washington Nationals in the NL East as they host the Philadelphia Phillies at Turner Field on Sunday. The Braves and Nationals are both playing good baseball meaning Atlanta has been unable to cut into Washington’s 4 game advantage atop the division. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is mired in the NL East basement and will be trying to avoid the sweep.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
July 29, 2012 10:35 AM Pacific

A frequent mistake made by beginning sports bettors is putting too much emphasis on the ‘brand name’ of players and teams that aren’t in good form but due to their track record of success and/or popularity among the public aren’t priced accordingly. We’ve got a classic case in point today–the Philadelphia Phillies and starting pitcher Roy Halladay are being seriously overvalued here.

Let’s start with the Phillies–they are 45-56 on the season and have lost -24.2 units for their financial backers. They’re also 11-24 -18.9 units against divisional rivals and 20-35 -22.8 units against opponents with winning records. Of course there are plenty of situations where bad teams have good pitchers. Roy Halladay is an eight time All Star and a two time Cy Young award winner but the problem is that he’s a long way from the form that brought him those accolades. This will be his third start after missing much of the year due to injury and his performance in his two assignments hasn’t been especially impressive. He performed well enough in his return to action, allowing 2 earned runs to the weak hitting Los Angeles Dodgers. He was hit hard in his second start, allowing 6 ER in 6 innings at home against the Milwaukee Brewers.

So why are the Braves and Phillies priced at ‘pick’em’ in this game? Atlanta starter Tim Hudson may not have the glossiest ERA but the bottom line is that when he’s on the mound the Braves usually win. The Braves have won 12 of Hudson’s 16 starts this season including 6 of 9 at Turner Field. Not surprisingly given the Phillies struggles against NL East foes, the Braves have dominated Philadelphia this year winning 5 of 7 games. Atlanta can’t let up if they want to have any hope of catching the Washington Nationals and since the market has priced this game based on what the Phillies and Halladay once were instead of their current incarnations we’re getting good value.

Bet Atlanta Braves (Hudson) -105 over Philadelphia Phillies (Halladay)