MLB Betting Picks: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

Added on Jul 15, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Monday’s baseball card features NL East action between the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins. The Nationals are currently in first place, leading the Atlanta Braves by three games. Miami is having a very disappointing season and their only consolation is that they’re not in last place–they’re four games clear of Philadelphia in the divisional basement.

Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
July 16, 2012 4:10 PM Pacific

The recreational betting ‘public’ and mainstream baseball fans have already caught on to the top of the Nationals pitching rotation and you won’t be finding any ‘value’ prices on either Gio Gonzalez or Steven Strasburg for the rest of the season. What isn’t as well known, however, is just how good the rest of their rotation is. For that matter, the public has been slow to accept that this entire Nationals team top to bottom is very solid and by no means a ‘fluke’.

We’re not complaining about any of that since it has allowed us to find plenty of opportunities to back Washington and we’ve got another one on Monday. This game is priced as a ‘pick’ but it probably shouldn’t be–the Nats should be at least a small favorite. Washington has won two of the first three games in this series and enters Monday’s contest having won 7 of their last 10 games. They’ve also got an impressive 27-19 road record good for +7.8 units of profit. Miami, on the other hand, has been a money loser in virtually every situation but have been especially disappointing at home. The Marlins are -10.8 units overall and their 23-24 home record has been most of that (-8.2 units). They’ve also dropped -10.7 units against right handed pitchers.

Edwin Jackson will get the start for Washington and he’s been solid, if not spectacular, all season long. His ‘last 3′ ERA is a little bloated due to a horrible outing at Colorado (8 ER in 3 innings) but since the Nats came back and won that game it’s easy to chalk that up as ‘one of those days’ at Coors Field. The Marlins will go with Carlos Zambrano and he’s struggled all season long–Zambrano has a 6.00 ERA at home where Miami has lost 5 of his 7 assignments. Overall, the Marlins have lost 11 of Zambrano’s 17 starts. No problem taking the better team and better pitcher at a ‘pick’em’ price.

Bet Washington Nationals (Jackson) -110 over Miami Marlins (Zambrano)