MLB Betting Picks: San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates

Added on Jul 08, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates will try to enter the All Star Break in an unfamiliar position–in first place in the NL Central. The rapidly improving Bucs currently hold a one game lead over the Cincinnati Reds and will look to hold on to divisional supremacy on Sunday as they welcome the San Francisco Giants to PNC Park. The Giants haven’t been in overwhelmingly impressive form but they’ve been good enough to capitalize on the Los Angeles Dodgers’ recent struggles and have narrowed the deficit in the NL West to 1/2 game entering today’s action.

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
July 8, 2012 10:35 AM Pacific

The Pirates continue to fly under the radar of the mainstream sports fan and baseball betting enthusiast, but they’ve been a solid moneymaker for bettors all season long. Their 47-37 record has translated into a whopping +17.75 unit profit overall. They’ve been especially strong at home, going 28-14 +14.1 units and today will send A.J. Burnett to the hill for the 15th time this season and he’s been ‘money in the bank’ both for the Pirates and their ‘financial backers’. Pittsburgh has posted a 12-2 record in Burnett’s outings for a +11.6 unit profit. At home, Burnett has been nearly flawless, posting a 2.01 ERA and leading his team to a perfect 8-0 record in those games.

The Giants will counter with two time Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum and he’s looked like anything but a top flight pitcher this season. His struggles have been well documented–and are supposedly mental and not physical–but his YTD stats are a mess. He’s got an ERA of 6.08 overall and an even more bloated 8.45 ERA on the road. The Giants have lost 13 of his 17 assignments overall this season including 7 of 9 on the road. They have won 2 of his last 3 assignments and he’s admittedly shown brief glimpses of his superstar form, but not enough to avoid a L3 ERA of over 5.00.

Good spot where we can back an underrated home team in Pittsburgh against a struggling pitcher in Lincecum. So far, the Giants have shown considerable patients with Lincecum, but given his usual dominance it sure seems that there’s something more serious at play here and that he might not be able to ‘work through it’ on the mound. In any case, we’ll back the home team.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Burnett) -120 over San Francisco Giants (Lincecum)