MLB Betting Picks: Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals

Added on Jul 07, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

National League action in Washington DC today as two teams heading in different directions face off. The Colorado Rockies are trying to climb out of the NL West cellar and avoid the dubious distinction of having the worst record in Major League Baseball. They’re currently one game back of 5th place San Diego in the division and are in a three way battle with the Padres, Cubs and Astros for the worst record in the sport. Washington, on the other hand, is a team on the rise–their starting rotation is arguably the best in the sport and their offense is now starting to hold up its end.

Colorado Rockies at Washington Nationals
July 7, 2012, 1:05 PM Pacific

Neophyte baseball handicappers are of the mistaken belief that value is only found with underdogs. That’s not the case–value can be found at any price. That looks to be the case today as the Washington Nationals host the Colorado Rockies. The Nats are a big favorite but a strong case can be made that they’re still the overlay position in this game.

The Rockies pulled the upset on Friday night against Washington ace Steven Strasburg, but it’s unlikely that they’ll repeat the performance against left hander Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been very sharp overall and particularly at home where he’s got a 2.42 ERA and the Nationals have won 5 of his 7 starts. More significantly, the Rockies have been awful against left handed pitching this season. Colorado has compiled a 8-16 record against southpaws for a net loss of -8.7 units and Gonzalez is one of the best in the business.

Colorado will counter with veteran lefty Jeff Francis who has been sharp in his recent starts but the Nationals have made money this season against southpaws with a 14-10 record. Washington’s offense seems to be free of their early season doldrums but worth noting that YTD the Nats have averaged 5.0 runs per game against lefties compared to 4 runs per game in all home appearances. Both totals are far less impressive than their performance over the last week where Washington has been averaging over 7 runs per game.

The Rockies are 13-26 -8.8 units on the road this season and they’ve been at their worst in day games where they’ve gone 8-19 -12.2 units. Looks to be a horrible situational spot for the visitors and we expect the home team to win easily.

Bet Washington Nationals (Gonzalez) -200 over Colorado Rockies (Francis)