MLB Betting Picks: San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates

Added on Jul 06, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

West meets East in a interdivisional National League series starting at PNC Park tonight. The San Francisco Giants haven’t been in particularly good form in the past couple of weeks but since the Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t either they’re still in striking distance in the NL West just 1 1/2 games out. The Pirates have been the surprise team of the MLB season and currently lead the NL Central by 2 games over Cincinnati.

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
July 6, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

Had this matchup taken place earlier in the season taking the Giants as underdogs would have been a very attractive proposition. That was then and this is now, however, and as a result we’re viewing this game as a chance to take the Pittsburgh Pirates at an attractive price. The Pirates continue to fly somewhat ‘under the radar’ as far as mainstream baseball fans are concerned and that has resulted in prices below ‘fair market value’ on this rapidly improving team.

From a statistical standpoint, you can make a case for both teams in this matchup. In particular, both the Pirates and Giants have put up decent numbers against left handed pitching and turned a solid profit in those games. San Francisco is 16-9 +8.3 units against southpaws though, curiously, they average a half run less per game against LHP than their overall per game average. The Pirates are 14-8 +7.8 units against lefties and they’ve put up better than average offensive numbers in these games.

Earlier in the season the rap on the Pirates was that they got good pitching and defense day in and day out but didn’t hit the ball well. At least in the recent term, that’s no longer the case–in the past week the Pirates have hit .335 and averaged 7.1 runs per game. The pitching and defense remains solid and the result has been a 6-1 record during that stretch. The Giants recent form isn’t as good –after a nice winning run to close out the month of June they’re just 2-5 in their last 7 games.

Neither pitcher in this matchup has posted particularly impressive numbers this season but the Pirates Erik Bedard has been strong at home. In 7 home assignments he’s got a 2.31 ERA and the Pirates have won 4 of 7. San Francisco has lost money on the road this season and have been slumping while the Pirates are playing their best baseball of the year.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Bedard) -135 over San Francisco Giants (Zito)