Baseball Betting Picks: Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates

Added on Jul 05, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

The Pittsburgh Pirates are one of the best stories of the 2012 baseball season and on Thursday they’ll host the slumping Houston Astros at PNC Park. The Pirates have won 7 of their last 10 games and have taken over first place in the NL Central where they hold a one game lead over the Cincinnati Reds. The Houston Astros, meanwhile, are in a less significant battle as they try to stay out of the NL Central cellar one half game over the Chicago Cubs.

Houston Astros at Pittsburgh Pirates
July 5, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

The legendary standup comedian Rodney Dangerfield had the famous catch phrase “I get no respect”. The Pittsburgh Pirates might feel the same way at least as far as the baseball betting marketplace is concerned. The Pirates are leading their division and hosting the worst road team in Major League Baseball but they’re not priced in a way that reflects that dynamic.

The Houston Astros are the only team in baseball with a single digit win total on the road. They’ve played decent baseball at home and actually have a winning record there (23-19) but on the road they’re 9-31 and have lost a ton of money for their financial backers. YTD the Astros have lost -17.5 units on the road which is a marked contrast to the 7 units of profit they’ve earned at home.

Pittsburgh has been one of baseball’s biggest money makers this season–a fact that is at least partially explained by their lack of respect in the betting marketplace. Finding and betting undervalued teams is always a good path to profit and the Pirates have banked +17.2 units overall–+13.5 units of which has come at home. The Pirates have also been at their best against opponents with losing records–they’re 20-10 +10.6 units against sub .500 teams.

The Astros have also lost a ton of money against right handed starters, posting a record of 21-38 -11.6 units in that situations. The Pirates will start Jeff Karstens who may not have the most impressive numbers on the year but facing a struggling Houston offense there’s a good chance he’ll pitch better than he has for most of the season. Bud Norris gets the assignment for Houston and he’s not only got a dismal ERA but the Astros have lost 5 of his 8 road starts. Classic case of getting the better team at a value price.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Karstens) -140 over Houston Astros (Norris)