MLB Baseball Betting: Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates

Added on Jun 20, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Interleague baseball play continues on Wednesday night as the Minnesota Twins wrap up a three game series in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. The Pirates have put up an impressive effort so far this season and are just 2.5 games behind the Cincinnati Reds for the NL Central lead. The Twins, meanwhile, are slumping through another dreadful season and enter this game with the worst record in the American League (26-40).

Minnesota Twins at Pittsburgh Pirates
June 20, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

The Pittsburgh Pirates are getting no respect, at least as far as the baseball betting market is concerned. They’ve been solidly profitable all season long (+10.5 units) and have done their best work at home (+9.4 units). They’ve taken care of business against opponents with losing records, going 12-6 +6.5 units. Today’s matchup is a battle of southpaws and Pittsburgh is 12-7 +7 units against left handed pitching.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is a terrible team. Their 26-40 record translates to a net loss of -6.4 units, though they’ve managed to turn a small profit on the road despite a 13-18 record (+1.3 units). They’ve lost money against left handers, going 7-10 (-1.5 units). Twins’ starting pitcher Francisco Liriano has been awful this year posting a 6.24 ERA which rises to 7.94 on the road. The Twins have lost 8 of Liriano’s 10 starts this year including and all five of his road assignments.

So we’ve got a good home team that has made strong profits for bettors this year playing for a divisional title against a money losing doormat and despite this the Pirates are just -125 home favorites? That sure doesn’t make sense. It could reflect the recent form of Pirates’ starter Eric Bedard–he’s got a 9.00 ERA in his L3 but two of those games were horrible road starts in Milwaukee and Baltimore. At home, he’s been very good with a 2.45 ERA and the Pirates have won 6 of his 8 home assignments. In his only home outing in his L3 starts he went 7 strong innings against Kansas City on June 8 allowing 5 hits and 2 ER.

Other than Bedard’s recent numbers it’s impossible to find a justification to play on Minnesota. Pittsburgh beat up on another one of Minnesota’s lefthanders on Wednesday–that was Scott Diamond who has been the Twins’ most effective pitcher this season (5-3 2.47 ERA). Liriano has been far from effective and we expect the Pirates to tee off on him in an easy win. We’ll gladly back the better team at home at a very attractive price.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Bedard) -125 over Minnesota Twins (Liriano)