MLB Baseball Betting Picks: Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays

Added on Jun 12, 2012 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Washington opened this early week series with a win on Monday and now they come back for another game at the Rogers Center against the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday night. The Nationals got a solid pitching performance from Edwin Jackson and three hits from rookie Bryce Harper to easily win 6-3, pounding out 14 hits to five for the Blue Jays.

Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays
June 12, 2012 4:05 PM Pacific

Chien Ming Wang is healthy for the first time in almost three years and has become the #5 starter in the Washington rotation after doing some work out of the bullpen. Wang was out of baseball for almost two years after undergoing surgery to repair a shoulder injury in 2009 and suffered a pulled hamstring early this season that has kept him out of the Nationals lineup. His numbers to date haven’t been very impressive but they’re expected to improve as he works himself into shape and gets used to his new role. He has a 5.79 ERA in two starts but hasn’t been working many innings. That number is based primarily on a 4 ER in 4 innings outing at Miami–he’s pitched reasonably well and definitely better than his ERA reflects.

In any case, he doesn’t deserve to be such a sizable underdog against the Blue Jays and Henderson Alverez. Alverez’s ERA looks good enough–3.76–but the salient stat when evaluating his YTD performance is the proverbial ‘bottom line’–the Blue Jays have lost much more often than they’ve won when he’s on the mount. Toronto has a 3-9 record in Alverez’s 12 starts this season including losses in 6 of his 7 home starts. Making matters worse, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has been exceedingly ineffective at home with a 5.32 ERA and five blown saves.

At this juncture, we consider the Nationals the better overall team. Bryce Harper has given them an offensive pop that they lacked earlier this season and they’ve not only been getting excellent work from their starting rotation but strong performance from the bullpen as well. Washington’s bullpen has a 3.09 ERA overall and a 3.12 ERA on the road–that’s not only good, but consistent which is just as important.

With a victory on Monday, the Nationals improved to 27-18 +6.6 units against right handed pitching and 5-2 +3.7 units in Interleague play. As noted above, Washington is a legit contender but the linesmakers and betting public are ‘late to the party’ and their valuation doesn’t currently reflect this fact. As long as that’s the case, we’ll gladly use Washington as often as we can and take advantage of the value prices we’re getting.

Bet Washington Nationals (Wang) +140 over Toronto Blue Jays (Alverez)