Monday Night Football Betting: Baltimore at Jacksonville

Added on Oct 24, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Another lackluster Monday Night Football game is on tap tonight as the Baltimore Ravens head south to take on the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Baltimore is 4-1 and being tabbed as a Super Bowl contender while Jacksonville is 1-5 and going nowhere.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
October 24 2011, 5:35 PM Pacific

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a mess, which doesn’t come as a huge surprise given their 1-5 SU record. Their defense hasn’t been bad and is the only thing standing between Jacksonville and a blowout loss every time they take the field. They haven’t been good enough to compensate for their awful offense which is one of the worst in the National Football League. The Jaguars rank dead last in offensive yardage and next to last in points scored. They’ve turned the starting quarterback job over to rookie Blaine Gabbert which might be the right move in the long view but he’s struggling to acclimate himself to the NFL game.

The Ravens, on the other hand, are in good shape. Their defense may not be quite as flat out dominant as it has been in the past but it’s still very solid and opportunistic. It’s also getting a lot of help from the offense which is moving the ball well and putting points on the board. Joe Flacco may never be a top tier NFL quarterback but he’s becoming very adept at game management and doing what needs to be done–in other words, a solid pro.

The obvious reaction is to play on the Ravens here, but that’s not how those big buildings in the desert were built. In our view, this price is too high–a fact that can be seen with some historical context. Baltimore has only been a road favorite of a touchdown or more three times in franchise history and only once since 2009 (they’re 1-2 ATS in those games). Jacksonville has only been a home dog of a touchdown or more twice in franchise history and only once since 2009 going 1-1 in those games. They were a +8 home dog to New Orleans a few weeks back and although they failed to cover, the fact the lost by only 13 looks pretty good in light of the beating that the Saints dropped on Indianapolis last week. The points are the play.

Bet Jacksonville Jaguars +10′ over Baltimore Ravens