NFL Betting Picks: Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars

Added on Oct 09, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

Two teams with low expectations heading into the 2011 season will face off in Florida on Sunday as the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Cincinnati Bengals. Jacksonville has struggled to find continuity at the quarterback position while Cincinnati has shown some promise as they’ve fought to a 2-2 record.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
October 9, 2011 10:00 AM Pacific

Strange line movement on this game–it opened with Jacksonville a -1′ point home favorite and the Jags were quickly bet up to +2′. Since then, however, all of the money has come in on the Bengals moving the line to the current price of Cincinnati -1. In our view, the late money has the right idea. Jacksonville will start rookie Blaine Gabbart who is considered their quarterback of the future but who has struggled in his limited NFL action. That won’t help a Jags team that has struggled to move the ball and put points on the board. Jacksonville has completed only 56 passes to date (a NFL low) and are ranked dead last in total offense.

That’ll be a serious problem against a Cincinnati team that might not have many flashy playmakers but can pound the ball on the ground. Running back Cedric Benson will be in the lineup again this week–he’s appealed a league suspension but is playing until the NFL makes a ruling. Regardless of the eventual outcome of that, he’ll be in action against Jacksonville. He’s got a very good backup in Bernard Scott. Cincy also has a rookie quarterback under center, but Andy Dalton is much further along in the developmental process than Gabbart. Most significantly, perhaps, he isn’t being asked to do much other than get the ball to his running backs and keep the chains moving.

The ‘X factor’ in this game could be the highly underrated Cincinnati defense. The Bengals are improbably ranked #1 in the NFL in total defense. They won’t have much trouble stopping a Jacksonville offense that has trouble moving the ball in the best of circumstances. The Jaguars haven’t been a good pointspread investment at home and while we would have liked to get ahead of the line move this still looks like a good value position. Cincinnati should win this game outright with relative ease and at the current price that’ll get us the money.

Bet Cincinnati Bengals -1 over Jacksonville Jaguars