Breaking Down Strikeforce Fedor Vs Henderson: Smith Vs. Saffiedine / Daley Vs. Woodley
Added on Jul 27, 2011 by John Petit in
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Welterweight bout:
Scott Smith vs. Tarec Saffiedine
Scott Smith
Odds: +250
Reach: 70 In
Record: 17-8 (1)
Strikeforce Record: 3-3
Last 5: 2-3
Streak: -2
Tarec Saffiedine
Odds: -260
Reach:70 in
Record: 10-3
Strikeforce Record: 2-1
Last 5: 3-2
Streak: -1
There is no arguing that Scott Smith is going through a rough patch, and has gone 2-3 in his last five. He had a loss to Nick Diaz in a catchweight fight, and won a stand up fight against Cung Le in a match he was being dominated in for most of the 3 rounds. He is the only man who has defeated Cung. He then had a rematch with Cung Le and lost via TKO, and went on to fight Paul Daley and was finished by him as well.
Tarec Saffiedine is also coming off a loss, but the only thing that the Tyron Woodley fight showed me was that he can be out wrestled by a better wrestler. He went undefeated in 2010 and last loss by decision Yoon Dong-Sika in Dream in 2009. The good news for Saffiedine is thatg Smith isn’t going to wrestle him. Smith is capable of controlling people on the floor, but he won’t be in this fight.
Smith is going to rely on his hands, and the reason that is good news for Saffiedine is that he has shown a solid chin in past fights. Smith can knock quite a few people out, and Saffiedine is no exception, but Saffiedine makes good decisions in the cage. That said I don’t think Smith will be able to land that shot. Saffiedine’s angles will most likely keep Smith off balance just enough to prevent that from landing.
Saffiedine’s game will be to keep Smith on his heels, and if he has trouble with Smith’s stand up he can revert to his wrestling. Smith is a come from behind fighter and that means Saffiedine will have to stay sharp the WHOLE fight. If at any time Saffiedine tries to relax Smith can put him anyway. That’s why I think this is Saffiedine’s fight to lose, and I see him adding another loss to Smith’s record. I think it will happen via TKO late in the first.
Welterweight bout:
Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley
Paul Daley
Odds: +200
Reach: 76 in
Record: 27-10-2
Strikeforce Record: 1-1
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: -1
Tyroon Woodley
Odds: -240
Reach: 73 in
Record: 8-0
Strikeforce Record: 6-0
Last 5: 5-0
Streak: +5
Paul Daley is coming off a title shot to Nick Diaz which turned into a 3 minute brawl almost the second it it started. Daley ended up losing that fight, but he had rattled off 4 straight wins since parting ways with the UFC. The only reason this fight isn’t a title fight is probably because of that fight. Its hard to imagine that Daley and Woodley aren’t number 1 and 2 and should be fighting for the belt since Nick has now vacated it. We all know what Daley wants to do in this fight, but I think we also all know the giant hole in Daley’s game.
Woodley has a tremendous amount of momentum. Some said he came into Strikeforce too soon, after only two fights, but he has won all 6 of his fights matches. The good news for Woodley is that the giant hole in Daley’s game is his strongest point. You can not over look the tremendous amateur/college wrestling resume he has put together. He is a better wrestler than Josh Koschek, and Koschek man handled him for the entire fight. Thats the game plan for Woodley, avoid the big punches (Daley won’t be kicking), and get this fight down to the floor. If there is a submission he will go for it, but Woodley needs to just stay busy enough.
We are going to know right away whats going to happen in this fight. If Daley can land on Woodley, and avoid the take down, I don’t see Woodley surviving the first 5 minutes. I don’t see the fight going like that. I think Woodley will be able to take Daley down at will, and I think he rides this fight to an easy 30-27 decision.
