Baseball Betting Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Added on May 18, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting opportunity in the National League on Wednesday night as the red hot Cincinnati Reds host the slumping Pittsburgh Pirates. Reds have won 8 of their last 10 and are currently in first place in the NL Central. Pirates have lost 6 straight and 7 of their last 10.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Morton) at Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo)
May 18, 2011 4:10 PM Pacific

Reds have won 5 straight but could be in a bit of a ‘letdown’ spot against Pittsburgh. Despite a 15-9 record on their home field the Reds have done little more than break even for baseball betting enthusiasts, posting a profit of only 1.2 units at the Great American Ballpark. Pirates have a losing record on the road (11-13) but that has produced +4.3 units of profit. When a team shows a losing record in a given situation yet produces profits that’s a clear indication that they’re being undervalued. In the long term, finding undervalued teams is the best way to sports betting profit.

Pirates have already taken 3 of 4 games from Cincinnati this year, and despite his decent 3.42 ERA in head to head games against Pittsburgh the Reds have lost 7 of Bronson Arroyo’s 13 starts against Pittsburgh. Bucs’ starter Charlie Morton has looked sharp in his recent outings, winning two of his last three assignments with an ERA in that span of 2.84. The game he lost may have been his best performance of all as he pitched 6 innings against the San Francisco Giants allowing 4 hits and 1 run only to see his team go on to lose 3-2.

Increasing the likelihood of a Cincinnati ‘letdown spot’ is a potential lookahead to their next two series which could be among the biggest of the year. They’ll hit the road this weekend for Interleague action against their in-state rival–and owners of the best record in baseball–the Cleveland Indians. That’ll be followed with a trip to Philadelphia for a three game set against the Phillies. This looks to be a classic spot where one team is ‘overvalued’ by the public against a team that is ‘undervalued’. We’ll back the Pirates in both games–a split gives us a small profit and a Bucs’ sweep lets us clean up nicely.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Morton) +140 over Cincinnati Reds (Arroyo)