MLB Betting Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals

Added on May 15, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Monday baseball betting offers a National League matchup between the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates. The two teams have comparable records, with the Nats checking in at 19-21 and the Bucs at 18-22. This is the first of a quick two game set.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Maholm) at Washington Nationals (Lannan)
May 16, 2011 4:05 PM Pacific

Both the Pirates and Nationals have made money for their backers in the early going despite their sub .500 records–they’re classic ‘under the radar’ teams that while not contenders are better than the ‘public’ thinks they are and as a result are usually good wagering values. Washington has been the marginally better team in the near term, posting a 5-5 record in their last 10 games as compared to the 4-6 record of the Bucs. Pirates have now lost 5 straight while Washington ended a three game losing streak with a win over Florida on Sunday.

Neither veteran southpaw involved in this matchup–Paul Maholm for the Pirates and John Lannan for the Nationals–have been in particularly good form lately or, for that matter, this season. The Pirates have lost 7 of Maholm’s 8 starts while the Nationals have a 4-4 record in Maholm’s assignments. Despite this disparity in results when the two lefties are on the hill for their respective teams we’re going to back the Pirates to end their losing streak here. Pirates were an awful team last year and while they’re not up to ‘contender’ status yet they have shown measurable improvement. Simply stated, they’re a better team than the public thinks they are and as a result we’re able to get a good value when they play–that’s why they’re in the black for the season despite a sub .500 record. Most significantly, however, we’ve got a great situational matchup since the Pirates have turned a profit against left handed pitching (6-4 +3 units) while the Nationals have lost money (3-6 -2.8 units). Pittsburgh averages 3.9 runs against southpaws while Washington is hitting a woeful .170 and averaging only 2.3 runs per game against left handers. We’ll gladly take a Pittsburgh team looking to get back on the winning track in a very favorable pitching matchup and we’re getting them at a short underdog price.

Bet Pittsburgh Pirates (Maholm) +105 over Washington Nationals (Lannan)