Breaking Down UFC 129: Randy Couture Vs. Lyoto Machida

Added on Apr 28, 2011 by John Petit in

UFC & MMA

Light Heavyweight bout:

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

Randy Couture

Odds: +295

Reach: 75in

Record: 19–10

UFC Record: 16-7

Last 5: 3-2

Streak: +3

Lyoto Machida

Odds: -350

Reach: 74in

Record: 16-2

UFC Record: 8-2

Last 5: 3-2

Streak: -2

I am still having a hard time with a fight that features Randy Couture that isn’t a main or co-main event. This fight could easily headline another card. That said, this will be an interesting fight if Randy is able to get a hold of Machida.

Lyoto Machida is coming off of the first two losses of his career, and his first one came at an enormous expense. Lyoto was KO’d for the first time in his rematch with Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and lost the light heavyweight strap in the process. In a fight, I thought he won, he then lost to former title holder Quinton “Rampage” Jackson by split decision. Up until these two fights, no one was able to really figure out how to fight Lyoto. His fast footwork, and confusing stance, brings him in an out of striking range with ease. He knows how to frustrate just about everyone, and he will pose an interesting set of problems for the legendary Couture.

This whole fight is being overshadowed by the statements Randy made in the run up to this fight. Couture has been saying this is his swan song. Win, lose or draw The Natural is walking away from the Octagon. I am not sure he will actually do it, Randy has said this before, but he is saying he wants to leave on his own terms. However, now that Zuffa has purchased Strikeforce, and Fedor is under the same roof, I am not so sure Randy wouldn’t take a fight with him. Some speculate that the reason Randy left the UFC before was to go fight Fedor, but the fight never took place.

Randy is riding a 3 fight win streak, and he most recently made Former Boxing Champ James Toney look like a fool in the Octagon. In a fight many saw ending the first minute, it took Randy 3 minutes to submit Toney by head and arm choke. Randy is going to want to clinch with Lyoto and use his dirty boxing to rough him up. If Randy can turn this into an ugly fight, where he spends half his time Thai clinching with Machida, he could definitely take the unanimous decision. I don’t think Randy is going to want to play on the ground with Machida, as Lyoto is well versed off of his back, and has come close to submitting other wrestlers in the past. If Randy thinks he can stay out of trouble, we may him do that.

This fight to me revolves around one thing. When Randy jumps in and out to clinch, How much damage will he take from Machida? If Lyoto is able to keep him at the end of his punches Randy is going to have a bad night on his hands. Sadly for Couture, thats how I see this going for him. I think the speed of Machida will give him a lot of problems, and Machida’s ability to elude him will start to frustrate Couture. I eventually see Lyoto landing something heavy, and being able to finish the legend. I think Lyoto wins this fight by TKO before the final bell.