MLB Betting Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks at Cincinnati Reds

Added on Apr 19, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting will once again take center stage on Tuesday and we’ll start our rundown with a National League matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds. The Reds currently lead the NL Central with a 9-7 record while the D-Backs are in the NL West basement at 6-8.

Arizona Diamondbacks (Galarraga) at Cincinnati Reds (LeCure)
April 19, 2011 4:10 PM Pacific

Despite their disparate rankings in their respective divisions, the D-Backs and Reds aren’t that far apart in terms of performance. Arizona’s pitching is once again an issue–they rank #29 in the Majors with a 5.55 ERA–but are hitting the ball fairly well. The Diamondbacks are currently #5 in team batting average hitting .277 which gives us reason to think they can hang with the hard hitting Reds. Cincinnati’s mound corps isn’t very impressive either ranking #19 in team ERA at 4.21.

Arizona won 2 of 3 from Cincinnati at home last week and there’s no reason they can’t produce a similar performance here as they did at Chase Field. Cincinnati is just 4-6 in their last 10 games and with a 6-4 record at home this season they’re pretty much at the ‘breakeven’ mark in terms of return on investment for bettors. Sam LeCure gets the start for the Reds today and although his ERA is solid at 2.25 we’re thinking it may be more of a function of the opponents he’s faced than anything else. LeCure’s starts have come against light hitting Houston and San Diego and over the long haul we expect to see him put up similar numbers as he did in his rookie season of 2010 where he had a 4.50 ERA.

The Diamondbacks have been very competitive in head to head play at Cincinnati in the past couple of years, winning 3 of the last 7 games played here. At the prices we’re getting we’ll look to play them throughout this series where 2 of 3 will give us a nice profit and 1 of 3 won’t hurt us too much. The Reds have been far from dominating this season–and particularly at home–so there’s no reason that the Diamondbacks can’t compete. If the Reds explode offensively we may revise our position but for now Arizona should be a good value position in all 3 games of this set.

Bet Arizona Diamondbacks (Galarraga) +150 over Cincinnati Reds (LeCure)