MLB Betting Picks: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs

Added on Apr 18, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Busy day of baseball betting action on Monday and we’ll start our coverage with a look at a National League game between the San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs. Both teams enter this contest with an identical 7-8 record. This is the first of a three game series between the teams at historic Wrigley Field.

San Diego Padres (Stauffer) at Chicago Cubs (Zambrano)
April 18, 2011 5:05 PM Pacific

Despite the fact that these teams have identical records the way they’ve gone about it has been drastically different. The Cubs aren’t doing anything particularly well at the moment. They’re ranked #15 in the MLB in runs scored though they are in the top 5 in team batting average with a .283 mark. The fact that they’re putting runners on base and not cashing in runs is problematic, as is their pitching which has been abysmal thus far. The Cubbies are #26 in team ERA with a 4.94 average and that’s pretty much all on the starters–the bullpen has been relatively decent with a 3.64 ERA.

The Padres haven’t been hitting the ball well but they’ve been getting extremely strong pitching throughout their staff. San Diego is currently #5 in team ERA with a 3.00 average and their relief corps has been even better with a 2.92 ERA and has been at their best away from Petco Park with a 1.80 ERA. Tim Stauffer gets the call today and he’s not been overly impressive in terms of numbers (4.80 ERA) but the Padres have won two of his three starts.

Most importantly, we’re still mindful of these teams’ profit/loss characteristics from a season ago. The Cubs lost a ton of money at Wrigley Field–they dropped -23.85 units in 2010 and since 1997 have lost a mind boggling -141.1 units on their home field despite being 45 games over .500 in that stretch. The reason for this is simple–the Cubs are a huge ‘public’ team and particularly when they play at venerable Wrigley Field. That’s the case in this game, though some of it has to do with the ‘name value’ of Carlos Zambrano who is still perceived as a top flight starter despite entering this contest with a 6.11 ERA. San Diego was a very profitable road investment in 2010 earning +17.45 units and we’ll take the road dog in this contest based on the Cubs legacy of red ink at Wrigley Field.

Bet San Diego Padres (Stauffer) +130 over Chicago Cubs (Zambrano)