More American League baseball action at Camden Yards on Monday as the Baltimore Orioles host the Detroit Tigers in the second contest of a 3 game series.   The Orioles have opened the 2011 season 4-0 following a road sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays and a Monday night win over Detroit.  The Tigers have played every game so far on the road and are just 1-3 on the campaign.

Detroit Tigers (Verlander) at Baltimore Orioles (Bergesen)
April 6, 2011  4:05 PM Pacific

When you get an opportunity to go against the Detroit Tigers on the road you have to take it–and particularly when they’re a road favorite.  That’s the case here in a clear example of a contest that has been priced to reflect the public’s tendency to fixate on past performances–in baseball that’s particularly ineffective as there’s plenty of examples where baseball teams have gone from a losing record one year to the thick of the playoff hunt or better the following year.

In this case, it doesn’t take a ‘genius like Norman Einstein‘ to figure out that Baltimore will be a much better team in the 2011 season.  After starting the 2010 season as the worst team in baseball the Orioles went on a tear after Buck Showalter took over the managerial reins. When Showalter took over the Baltimore had the worst record in baseball at 32-73 and a pitiful team ERA of 5.18. In his 57 games at the helm, Showalter guided the Orioles to a 34-23 record—the best in the AL East during that stretch. More impressively, the Orioles’ pitching staff compiled a solid 3.54 ERA during the stretch run.  Showalter didn’t win the AL Manager of the Year award for his effort, but there wasn’t a better managerial performance in all of Major League Baseball in 2010.  Given the way that the team responded to Showalter the fact that they’re undefeated to this point isn’t particularly shocking.

The Tigers finished 81-81 in 2010 and was downright awful on the road. At home, the Tigers were 52-29 and ranked among the best home field teams in the American League. On the road, they were a woeful 29-52—the lowly Seattle Mariners were the only team in the American League that won fewer games away from home than the Detroit Tigers. Despite the .500 finish and horrible road record the Tigers didn’t make many changes in the offseason and expect their veteran laden team to simply do their job and produce in 2011.

Not only was Detroit awful on the road in 2010 they were a huge money loser against righthanded pitching. The Tigers lost -18.45 units against RHP away from home, and that gives us even more reason to oppose a team that was already a ‘go against’ on the road. Baltimore managed to eke out a profit against RHP at Camden Yards in 2010 despite their horrible start and have already earned their ‘financial backers’ +5.45 units this season.

Bet Baltimore Orioles (Bergesen) +115 over Detroit Tigers (Verlander)

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