MLB Betting Preview: Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers

Added on Apr 04, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

MLB

Baseball betting season is underway and we’ll have plenty of free picks and other handicapping information all summer long. We’ll get things going with a National League game between the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers, one of six contests on the board for Monday. The Braves have opened the season 2-1 while the Brewers were swept in their first three games on the road against the Cincinnati Reds.

Atlanta Braves (Beachy) at Milwaukee Brewers (Narveson)
April 4, 2011 11:10 AM Pacific

We were leery about the Milwaukee Brewers heading into this season. While it’s too early to write them (or any other team) off after the first three games, a season opening sweep is not exactly confidence boosting for a team that has made no secret that they’re expected to be a contender this year. By the standards of a small market team the Brewers ‘broke the bank’ this season with some free agent signings–most notably starting pitchers in Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. They’ve also got a lot of other players including Prince Fielder and Ricky Weeks who are free agents after this season. So Milwaukee management has sounded the notice that this is their best shot for postseason success which is a big task for a team that finished 77-85 in 2010 and 14 games out of first place. Trouble started before the season, however, with an injury to Greinke–he suffered a cracked rib and will be sidelined for at least a few more weeks.

The biggest change for Atlanta in the offseason was the retirement of venerable manager Bobby Cox, who turned the reins over to former Florida Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez. On the field, the biggest changes were the signing of power hitter Dan Uggla and a complete ‘re-engineering’ of the bullpen. Uggla may be a downgrade defensively from his predecessor at second base, Omar Infante, but the hope is that his home run tally will more than make up for that. Uggla hit 33 home runs and picked up 105 RBI’s and he could improve upon those numbers with a Braves team that should be better at getting on base in front of him in the batting order than his former teammates in Florida. In the bullpen, setup men Peter Moylan and lefties Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty are back but there’s a huge change in the closer spot. Billy Wagner retired and the job now belongs to rookie Craig Kimbrel. It’s a tough gig for a rookie, but Kimbrel has been touted as a ‘franchise closer’ in the making.

The Braves were a poor investment away from Turner Field last season, losing over 16 units for their financial backers. That being said, we don’t trust this Brewers team until they give us a reason to do so. They lost a good chunk of change against right handers at Miller Park last season (-12.2 units) and have struggled bigtime against Atlanta dropping five of the last six against the Braves at home. We have a lot more confidence with Atlanta in the early stages of the season and we’ll take them at a ‘pick’em’ price.

Bet Atlanta Braves (Beachy) -105 over Milwaukee (Narveson)