NBA Betting Preview: Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat

Added on Mar 05, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

The marquee matchup on Sunday’s NBA card is a titanic Eastern Conference battle between the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. The Heat have lost three straight games allowing the Bulls to pull even with Miami–both teams are now 3 games behind East leading Boston. This game will be televised on ABC in the United States.

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
March 6, 2011 10:00 AM Pacific

This is a spot that we had originally ‘circled’ for a play on the Heat thinking that a double revenge spot on national TV would be a made to order ‘statement game’. The way they’ve played recently, however, we just can’t trust them and we’ll go the other way. It’s been a rough week for Miami–they blew a huge lead to Orlando and eventually lost and followed that up with an embarrassing annihilation at San Antonio. The Heat are starting to take the appearance of a classic ‘bully’ team–they’ve got the firepower to beat up on losing teams but struggle when they step up in class. Miami is just 10-14 ATS against opponents with winning records this season and their recent form against good teams is even worse–they’re currently on a 2-7 SU/ATS run against opponents with a record over .500.

The Bulls have been an excellent pointspread team this season. They’re 36-23-1o overall against the spread. The Bulls aren’t a great road team–they’re right around .500 on the road with a 16-14 SU record. Their pointspread record is more encouraging–they’re 17-13 ATS on the road and an impressive 11-3 ATS as an underdog. They have given Miami any number of headaches this season, winning both previous meetings between the teams. The Bulls recently got defensive and rebounding powerhouse Joakim Noah back in the lineup after missing 30 games due to injury and along with Carlos Boozer have the much stronger frontcourt. They were able to handle Dwight Howard in their last game and nothing the Heat can throw at them up front can compare. The Bulls have also been a team that ‘builds on success’–some teams experience a letdown after a big upset win but Chicago is 6-1 ATS after an upset win as an underdog. They’ve also been immune to the fatigue teams usually experience on long road trips, at least as reflected in their pointspread performance–after 3 or more road games the Bulls are 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS.

The most significant component of this handicap may be Chicago’s strong performance against opponents with winning records which is in marked contrast to the Heat. The Bulls are 15-9 SU/16-7 ATS against opponents with winning records and enter this game on a 6-2 SU/ATS run. The playoffs are starting to look very problematic for the Heat–the Boston Celtics are already ‘in their head’ and if they can pull off a victory here the Miami Heat will be too. It’ll also mean that Miami is winless against the two best teams in the East–that’s a problem with their mental game and something they might not be able to easily remedy.

Bet Chicago Bulls +5 over Miami Heat