NBA Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards

Added on Mar 05, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NBA

The NBA’s slogan ‘Where Amazing Happens’ sure doesn’t seem to apply to this non-conference matchup of bottom feeders as the Washington Wizards host the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Wizards are in a race to the bottom in the Eastern Conference and are just 3.5 games ahead of Cleveland who–despite their injuries and record losing streak–have continued to play hard. The Timberwolves are in last place in the West and although they’re just 2 1/2 games behind Sacramento haven’t shown much interest in getting out of the basement.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards
March 5, 2011 4:05 PM Pacific

In a matchup of ‘bad against bad’ teams that don’t care a lick about playing defense, the tendency is to look Over the total. This makes sense in theory, but we don’t think these teams have the talent to surpass the high total set on this game. But let’s start by talking about how bad these teams are–Wizards have lost 16 of 18 SU going 6-12 ATS during that stretch. Minnesota lost last night in Philadelphia failing to cover as +9′ point road underdogs. That dropped them to 5-15 SU in their last 20 games during which they’ve gone 7-13 ATS.

While we understand the rationale of playing two bad defensive teams Over the total it looks like the linesmaker has adjusted the price in this matchup accordingly. Minnesota scores a fair amount of points but Washington is the #22 scoring offense in the league averaging 96.7 PPG. A more significant metric may be their FG %–both teams rank among the worst in the NBA with Washington #25 (.442) and Minnesota #28 (.437). In other words, even if the teams do give each other plenty of open looks there’s a decent chance this could become a ‘bricklaying contest’.

The Wizards have played Over the total in only 9 of 31 home games (20 Under, 2 push) and in home games with a total of 210 or higher they’ve gone Under in three of three. When Washington is mired in a losing streak as they are now the Unders start to pile up–after 3 or more consecutive losses the Wiz have played 14 Under and 3 Over. They’ve gone Under in 3 straight including their last game against defensively porous Golden State. The T-Wolves have played 12 Under in their last 18 games and are Under in 17 of 29 with a total of 210 or higher.

Play Minnesota/Washington Under 211′