Super Bowl Prop Bets: Margin of Victory Prop

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In this post we’ll look at the various ‘margin of victory’ prop bets.  At first, trying to handicap the actual margin of victory–even within a range of points–seems like finding the proverbial needle in the haystack.  It’s not quite that random, however, given the orderly scoring progression of football (eg:  there’s a lot of multiples of ’3′) and what we know about key numbers.  Like the rest of the Super Bowl prop bets we’ve examined the wagers and prices here are from Bodog but similar bets can be found at other sportsbooks.

WILL THE GAME GO INTO OVERTIME?

Will the game go into overtime?

Yes +625
No -1100

This isn’t really a margin of victory prop but given the propensity for close games decided late in the fourth quarter in recent years this is long overdue.  The ‘No’ side of this proposition may be a safer bet but the ‘Yes’ is clearly where the value is:

Bet ‘Will the game go into overtime’ Yes +625

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SCORE FIRST/FINAL RESULT:

The team that scores first in the Super Bowl goes on to win the game roughly 65% of the time.  Two ways to play this one–take the team you think will win the game (in our case, the Pittsburgh Steelers) to score first/win or take both teams to score first/win.  Obviously if either team scores first and loses you lose the bet but you’re playing with the percentages here which is always a good thing.

Bet Steelers score first/win game +250
Bet Packers score first/win game +180

GAME TO BE DECIDED BY EXACTLY 3 POINTS:

Based on the pointspread, the evenly matched nature of the game and what we know about key numbers this looks like a good value as well:

Game to be decided by exactly 3 points +350

TEAM MARGIN OF VICTORY PROPS:

Finally, we’ll back the Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 1 to 3 points.  We expect this to be a close game and this gives us a nice range to work with.  If the Steelers win by exactly 3 points we’ll cash this one and the one above for a huge payout.

Bet Steelers to win by 1 to 3 points +500

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