Superbowl Betting: Pittsburgh Steelers Player Props

Added on Feb 05, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

This post will deal with the Superbowl betting props on the individual performances of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ players. The following post will cover the Green Bay Packers’ player props. As is the case with many other Super Bowl props, a common mistake is to tie your prop bet positions in with your ‘best case scenario’ as to who will win the game. For example, if you think the Pittsburgh Steelers will win you might be tempted to go ‘Over’ on a variety of production props involving their players. While Ben Roethlisberger could throw for 400 yards passing it seldom works out that way. Besides, we’re in the business of statistical analysis and not speculation. More typically what happens is one or two players have ‘big days’ while most of the team produces at or slightly below their season average. Predicting *which* players will perform significantly above their usual level is an exercise in futility. Note that this list is far from exhaustive–the goal with this post and the next post is to run down some of the more attractive looking betting positions. If time permits, we’ll try to pick up some of the other props tomorrow before game time. As is the case with all of our prop bets, the propositions and prices we quote are from Bodog but most of these wagers can be found at any decent sportsbook.

SUPER BOWL MVP:

At first glance, this may seem counterintuitive with our position of not trying to speculate on which players will have a ‘big day’. In actuality, what we’re doing is looking for value–more specifically, we’re trying to determine which players could have a significant impact on the game at a favorable price. We won’t run through the entire list of odds offered but the range from Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers at 3/2 to Pittsburgh linebacker Lawrence Timmons at 45/1. The ‘field’ is also available at 16/1 but since most of the significant players on both teams are quoted we have no real interest in that position.

Our first position is a tactical one–the Packers’ biggest liability on defense is arguably against the rush so there’s a good chance that the Steelers will emphasize their running game. That gives running back Rashard Mendenhall the potential for having a big impact on the outcome of the game. He’s not the longest shot on the board, but given what we know about the matchup and his importance to the Steelers’ rushing attack we’ll back him at 7/2. Mendenhall ran for 121 yards against a Jets’ team with a better rushing defense than Green Bay’s.

The Steelers’ aren’t perceived as a passing team, but they’ve made big plays all season long through the air. There’s some precedent to this, as the MVP in Super Bowl XLIII was Santonio Holmes by virtue of his game winning touchdown catch. We’ll look past the ‘bigger name’ of Hines Ward and instead back wide receiver Mike Wallace at 15/1.

Bet Rashard Mendenhall 7/2 to win Super Bowl MVP
Bet Mike Wallace 15/1 to win Super Bowl MVP

BEN ROETHLISBERGER PASSING ATTEMPTS:

While we’re fully aware of the Steelers’ potential for big plays through the air their ‘bread and butter’ will be their rushing attack. First, let’s look at the prop:

Over 31.5 passing attempts -115
Under 31.5 passing attempts -115

In his two previous Super Bowl appearances Roethlisberger has averaged 25.5 attempts and threw less than 31 on both occasions. That’s how we’ll play it.

Bet Ben Roethlisberger Under 31.5 passing attempts -115

RASHARD MENDENHALL–TOTAL RUSHING YARDS:

As noted above, Mendenhall ran for 121 against a better rushing defense than he’ll face here. With the matchup appearing to favor a Steelers’ rushing attack there’s every reason to think he’ll at least be in the 100 yard range. The prop is:

Over 77.5 rushing yards -120
Under 77.5 rushing yards -110

And we’ll play the Over.

Bet Rashard Mendenhall Over 77.5 rushing yards -120

MIKE WALLACE RECEIVING YARDS/TOUCHDOWN:

Finally, we’ll back Mike Wallace on a couple of props:

Mike Wallace receiving yards:

Over 67.5 yards -115
Under 67.5 yards -115

Mike Wallace to score a touchdown:

Yes +120
No -150

We’ll look for Wallace to be Roethlisberger’s ‘go to’ option through the air and like the price for him to reach the endzone.

Bet Mike Wallace Over 67.5 receiving yards -115
Bet Mike Wallace to score a touchdown +120

Next up, we’ll look at the individual player props for the Green Bay Packers.