Superbowl Betting: Scoring Props

Added on Feb 05, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

In this post we’ll look at several Super Bowl prop bets related to scoring. As was the case with our previous posts on prop bets, the bets and prices we’re using will be from Bodog but you can find similar bets at most decent sportsbooks in Nevada or offshore:

TEAM SCORING FIRST TO WIN GAME:

This prop bet requires the player to bet ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on the following question:

Will the team that scores first win the game?

Yes -160
No +130

Historically, the team that has scored first in the Super Bowl has gone on to win the game more often than not. In the previous 28 Super Bowls the first team to score has won 28 and lost 16. But before we blindly bet the ‘yes’ based on the higher frequency of first scorers to win let’s check out the percentages and see where the value is. Coverted to percentages, we can say that the team that scores first has gone on to win the Super Bowl approximately 63.6% of the time (we’re dropping the fractional numbers to make things easier) and has lost the game 36.3% of the time. Now, lets look at the theoretical breakeven point for each position:

Yes -160 = theoretical break even 61.54%
No +130 = theoretical break even 43.48%

We’re not getting an overlay with either position, but clearly the more advantageous position based on breakeven percentage is ‘Yes’. For us to be interested in the ‘No’ position we’d have to be getting +175 or higher (theoretical breakeven at +175 = 36.36%).

Bet First Team to score will win–Yes -160

FIRST SCORE OF THE GAME:

The First Score of the Game will be?

Touchdown -155
FG/Safety +125

This looks to be a prop directed ‘squarely’ at inexperienced football bettors. The conventional wisdom is that recreational players would rather bet on ‘something’ to happen rather than ‘nothing’, and would rather bet on ‘excitement’ rather than a lack thereof. That might explain why the ‘touchdown’ is such an overwhelming favorite in this proposition. The reality, however, is that in 8 of the last 11 Super Bowl games the first score has been a field goal.

Bet The First Score of the Game will be: Field Goal/Safety +125

MARGIN OF VICTORY:

Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 3 points?

Yes (decided by 3 points) +375
No (not decided by 3 points) -550

If you’ve bet on NFL football for any length of time you’re aware of the significance of the ‘key number’ of three. In any given year, more games land exactly on 3 than any other margin. The exact breakdown varies from year to year, but typically 15% of all NFL games land on the number 3. In Super Bowl games, the trend for many years was toward ‘blowout’ games which resulted in only 1 of the first 35 games being decided by exactly three points. In the past decade, we’ve seen more competitive games and four of the last nine Super Bowls have been decided by exactly 3 points. Considering that this is also right around the pointspread in this game we’ll suggest you take a shot on the ‘Yes’ here:

Bet Will the Super Bowl be decided by exactly 3 points? Yes +375

SECOND HALF LEAD CHANGE:

This prop asks the following:

Will there be a Lead Change in the Second Half?

Yes +140
No -170

Once again, we’ll take the value with the ‘Yes’ based on the close pointspread and apparently evenly matched abilities of these teams. The Super Bowl has produced a second half lead change in the last three games and the short price on this game makes it look like a good possibility this year.

Bet Will there be a Lead Change in the Second Half? YES +140