Super Bowl Props: Turnover Props
Added on Feb 05, 2011 by Jack Thurman in
2 Comments
Of the many Super Bowl props available at sportsbooks the ‘turnovers prop’ bet is one of the most common. Basically, the bettor decides whether the number of turnovers in the game will go ‘over’ or ‘under’ a set number. There are also prop bets available for the individual turnovers, allowing you to bet ‘over’ or ‘under’ on the number of fumbles and/or interceptions. The props and prices in this writeup are from Bodog, but similar bets can be found at most sportsbooks:
INTERCEPTIONS:
Total Interceptions in the Game:
Over 1.5 -160
Under 1.5 +130
A mistake that many inexperienced bettors make with Super Bowl prop bets is to tie their position on props to one outcome or another. For example, a Pittsburgh backer would assume that the Steelers will intercept Aaron Rodgers several times. A Green Bay booster will make the opposition assumption that Rodgers won’t get picked off. We prefer to take all of the guesswork out of the equation and go by statistics. You can make the case that a playoff game–and particularly the Super Bowl–operates on a different dynamic than a regular season game but, again, that’s a difficult thing to quantify. As a result, we’ll look to the regular season statistics for each team in formulating our position.
There’s a number of ways to break this proposition down statistically, but we’ll keep it simple: The Steelers intercepted opposing quarterbacks 21 times. The Packers intercepted opposing quarterbacks 24 times. Combined, that’s an average of 2.8 interceptions per game. And that gives us a nice overlay with which to bet ‘Over’.
Bet Total Number of Interceptions Over 1.5 -160
FUMBLES:
Same concept with this bet, only involving fumbles recovered by the opposing team. Obviously some running backs are known for having ‘butterfingers’, but the number of fumbles they lose is more a function of the opposing defenses’ ability to recover them. So we’ll look to the defensive ‘fumbles recovered’ total for each team. First, let’s look at the bet:
Total Fumbles Recovered by the Opposing Team
Over 1.5 +110
Under 1.5 -140
The Steelers were #5 in the NFL in defensive fumble recoveries with 14. Green Bay was well down the rankings table with 8. We’ll do the math, and that’s a combined average of 1.37 fumbles per game. Obviously when you’re talking a fractional difference between 1 and 2 that’s not much of an overlay and it doesn’t give us much margin for error. In the longrun, however, you’ll make a lot more money betting based on the statistical data and not a ‘hunch’ that there will be an inordinate number of fumbles.
Bet Total Fumbles Recovered by the Opposing Team Under 1.5 -140
TEAM TURNOVERS:
Team to Commit the Most Turnovers in the Game
Pittsburgh -115
Green Bay -115
As the prices indicate, this statistic is very close. Green Bay threw 13 interceptions and lost 4 fumbles this year. Pittsburgh threw 9 interceptions and lost 9 fumbles. Not much of an overlay, but going by the numbers that factors out to the Packers committing 1.06 turnovers per game and the Steelers committing 1.12 per game. Again, not much of an edge but if you’re going to play this prop might as well have a statistical basis for your position.
Bet Pittsburgh to commit the most turnovers -115
FIRST TURNOVER:
The First Turnover of the Game will be?
Fumble +125
Interception -145
No turnover +800
We’ll start by eliminating the ‘no turnover’ option. There have actually been two Super Bowls played without any turnovers–Super Bowl XXV between Buffalo and the NY Giants and Super Bowl XXXIV between St. Louis and Tennessee. That means that just under 5% of all Super Bowl games have been played without any turnovers, but theoretical break even at +800 is just over 11% meaning the price ain’t right. The price on ‘no turnovers’ would have to be more than +1900 (theoretical breakeven at that price = 5%).
So for our purposes we’ll assume there will be a turnover. Since there’s not a good statistical way to predict which type of turnover will happen first we’ll look at which type is most likely to occur and base our bet on that. The teams combined for 22 interceptions and 13 fumbles, so an interception is the more likely ‘first turnover’.
Bet first turnover interception -145
2 Comments
You must be logged in to post a comment.
February 8, 10:18 am
what was the total number of game fumbles and the length of the national anthem
February 8, 5:01 pm
I know there was only one lost fumble….I’ll track down the ‘official’ anthem time and post it later