NFL Betting Picks: New York Jets at New England Patriots

Added on Jan 14, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

The final NFL playoff game of the weekend takes place on Sunday afternoon as the New York Jets travel to Foxboro, MA to take on the New England Patriots. The Jets upset the Indianapolis Colts in the wild card round to advance to this stage, while the Pats enjoyed a bye week thanks to their NFL best regular season record.

New York Jets at New England Patriots
January 16, 2010 1:30 PM Pacific

Our first reaction is that the Patriots are simply priced too high. It’s no doubt an accurate reflection of public perception–the Patriots have the NFL’s best record, while the Jets have been in the news more often for Brett Favre’s text messages while with the team and Rex Ryan’s wife’s feet than anything they’ve done on the football field. The line is also no doubt influenced by the Patriots’ 45-3 blowout win at home against the Jets on December 6. The Jets did beat the Patriots at home early in the regular season.

The Jets’ defense may not be as strong as it was last season, but it’s still very good. Ditto with their rushing game, which finished the regular season ranked #4 in the league. New York has been a very strong ATS investment on the road in the past couple of years going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games away from home. They’ve also covered 11 of their last 17 as underdogs. They’re also a team that has responded well in ‘revenge’ spots–they were 3-0 SU/ATS in ‘revenge’ games this year and 10-3 SU/ATS since 2008.

We’re not going to call for the outright upset but its well within the realm of possibility–all you need to do is look at the Patriots’ first round game against Baltimore last year to see that. We do think that the Jets will use their superior defense and rushing game to keep Tom Brady off the field and keep this game well within the pointspread.

Bet New York Jets +9 over New England Patriots