NFL Betting Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Added on Jan 14, 2011 by Jack Thurman in

NFL

A pair of teams that are no strangers to each other will face off in Saturday NFL action as the Pittsburgh Steelers host their NFC North rivals the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens had little trouble with the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend to advance, while the Steelers had a bye week. This will be the third meeting of the season between the teams and the sixth in the past two years.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
January 15, 2011 1:30 PM Pacific

Based on the way the Baltimore defense played last weekend in Kansas City, the Ravens have good reason to be confident heading into this matchup. They looked downright dominant against the ’ highly ranked Kansas City rushing attack on Saturday as they methodically shut down the Chiefs on the way to a 30-7 victory. Baltimore and Pittsburgh finished the regular season with identical 12-4 records with the Steelers taking the division title by virtue of the tiebreaker. The teams split a pair of games this year with Baltimore winning at Pittsburgh in early October and the Steelers returning the favor on the Ravens’ home field in December.

Pittsburgh holds a SU edge in head to head play, winning 20 of the last 32 contests including 12 of 17 at home. Since 2008, Pittsburgh has 5 of 7 going 4-2-1 ATS. Going back further, however, it becomes clear just how evenly matched the two sides have been historically—despite the Steelers’ SU edge at home the ATS tally is a dead even 8-8-1. Both teams had winning pointspread marks this season with Baltimore going 9-7 ATS while Pittsburgh went 10-6 against the number. Baltimore was 6-2 ATS on the road against a 5-2-1 ATS home record for the Steelers.

With such a hard fought history and the team’s identical won/loss record this season this game will very likely be decided by the intangibles. Baltimore is one of the oldest teams in the league, and particularly on the defensive side of the ball. This makes their already tough scheduling situation even more tenuous as they’ll play this game with only 6 days of rest off a road game. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been off for the past 13 days and will be well rested.

This game won’t be a blowout but we do expect the Steelers to win and cover the small number. The Ravens may get more media coverage of their defense, but statistically the Steelers have the best stop unit in the league. They also have the more experienced and versatile quarterback, and Pittsburgh’s ferocious pass rush (48 sacks this year) will make things even more difficult for Baltimore’s Joe Flacco. We look for Pittsburgh to win by a touchdown in a game that stays UNDER the total.

Bet Pittsburgh Steelers -3 over Baltimore Ravens
Bet Pittsburgh/Baltimore Under 37