Super Bowl Betting Futures Suggest Another Good Year For Underdogs

Added on Nov 23, 2010 by Jack Thurman in

Super Bowl

The 2010 NFL season has been somewhat unique relative to recent years in that there isn’t one dominating team that has emerged as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. With the good play of several ‘upstarts’ and the disappointing performances of teams like Indianapolis and New Orleans the Super Bowl futures betting market is wide open. The absence of a dominant team also suggests that Super Bowl underdog bettors may have another good showing this year.

Current Super Bowl betting future odds list three teams as +750 favorites, but there are nine teams priced at +1000 or lower. The three teams currently favored at +750 are the Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots. The Patriots have a clear edge in coaching and big game experience, but all three sides have some glaring liabilities as well. Right behind these three teams are the New York Jets and Atlanta Falcons at +800. The Jets still have the solid rushing game and stout defense and the Falcons may be playing better football than anyone in the league right now. The Baltimore Ravens are priced at +850 and the Pittsburgh Steelers at +900. At +1000 are the defending champion New Orleans Saints and the San Diego Chargers.

At this point, which team will be playing their best football come February 6 when the Super Bowl is held at the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium in Irving, Texas is anyone’s guess but the parity suggests that NFL pointspread players could have another game in which the underdog is an attractive play. Prior to the last decade, pointspread favorites dominated the Superbowl seemingly every year. Through 1985, favorites were 12-6 against the spread and by 1995 that disparity had grown to 19-9 ATS. In the past decade or so, underdogs have made a comeback going 9-4 against the spread. That leaves the pointspread tally to date at 23-18-2 with no official line on Superbowl 1.

Another rare occurrence historically has also happened with greater frequency in recent years. Before 1990 only two teams had won the Superbowl outright and not covered the pointspread. Since then, there have been six Superbowls where the underdog covered the spread despite losing outright. In the past decade it’s become commonplace, as 4 of the last 9 Superbowls have been covered by the losing team including last year’s game.

A byproduct of the underdog resurgence is a greater equilibrium in the Superbowl pointspread. By 1995, the success of the favorite and the common knowledge of their historical dominance—even by the general public—had resulted in a good deal of pointspread ‘inflation’. That year the San Francisco 49ers were 18’ point favorites over the San Diego Chargers—the highest chalk price in Superbowl history. Since then, Superbowl pointspreads have returned to some semblance of normalcy, thanks to a better performance by underdogs and due to the perception of the wagering public that they have a realistic chance of bringing home the money even if they don’t win outright.